<\/P>
The United States is highlighting its commitment to Southeast Asia by holding a leader-level summit with ASEAN members this week in Washington despite being in the midst of dealing with the Ukraine turmoil, analysts said.<\/P>
But Washington is not likely to present a coherent economic strategy to reduce Southeast Asia\u2019s overreliance on China and that will take some of the shine off the affair, they added.<\/P>
U.S. President Joe Biden and his counterparts will likely discuss Indo-Pacific security, Myanmar, Ukraine and economic ties during the two-day meeting beginning Thursday. Analysts said they expect little in terms of outcome, barring perhaps a joint statement frowning on Beijing\u2019s expansionism in the South China Sea.<\/P>
\u201cThe significance of the summit is that it is being held,\u201d said Bilahari Kausikan, chairman of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore.<\/P>
\u201cThe meeting is the message, that while a war is raging in Ukraine, the U.S. is holding a summit with ASEAN. It underscores that the U.S. is capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time,\u201d said the former diplomat speaking at a webinar on Tuesday hosted by The Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.<\/P>
Leaders from eight of 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations are expected to attend \u2013 the Myanmar junta\u2019s leader has not been invited, and the Philippines\u2019 outgoing president chose not to attend. The summit, only the second hosted by the United States, commemorates 45 years of ties with ASEAN.<\/P>
For Greg Poling, a Southeast Asia analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, much of this summit is about symbolism \u2013 \u201cand symbolism matters in diplomacy.\u201d<\/P>
\u201cThis summit is a big deal because the Indo-Pacific is a priority theater and ASEAN is central to the U.S.\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy. President Biden has yet to meet many of the Southeast Asian leaders in person, so the summit would be an opportunity to do that and will show that his commitment to the region is more than just rhetoric,\u201d Poling told BenarNews.<\/P>
Biden met virtually with his ASEAN counterparts during an October 2021 summit. He has met Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who came to Washington in March, and Indonesian President Joko \u201cJokowi\u201d Widodo on the sidelines of the November 2021 Climate Summit in Glasgow.<\/P>
Southeast Asia is one of Washington\u2019s top priorities, the Biden administration has stressed time and again. It sees the area as crucial due to Beijing\u2019s outsized influence there. Since last year, top officials including U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin have visited the region.<\/P>
Beijing\u2019s concerns<\/P>
China, for its part, has cautioned ASEAN members about the summit through a statement issued Sunday after talks between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his counterpart in Cambodia, this year\u2019s chair of the regional bloc.<\/P>
\u201cThe moves to introduce the Cold War mentality into the region and incite and create camp confrontation will undermine the peace and development that the region has enjoyed for many years. Asian countries should stay vigilant and reject such moves together,\u201d the Chinese foreign ministry statement said.<\/P>
U.S. National Security Council Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell countered those concerns on Wednesday.<\/P>
\u201cPresident Biden will be direct, he will talk about a desire to compete peacefully \u2013 he does not want Southeast Asia to descend into a new Cold War,\u201d Campbell said in an online webinar about the summit. \u201cWe recognize that any initiative simply designed for competition will have difficulty gaining altitude in Southeast Asia. It must be based on the needs and desires of Southeast Asian people.\u201d<\/P>
South China Sea<\/P>
Southeast Asia analyst Hunter Marston, for one, expects an end-of-summit statement containing strongly worded language against Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea.<\/P>
\u201cASEAN states are a little more forward-leaning when it comes to a U.S.-ASEAN summit. If you look at the Sunnylands Declaration, it was a lot more assertive, [and] more in line with Washington\u2019s talking points,\u201d said Marston, an international relations analyst at Australian National University.<\/P>
He was referring to the 2016 U.S-ASEAN summit in Sunnylands, Calif., the first held in the United States. Its closing statement underlined mutual respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and equality of all nations, and, in two clauses, a shared commitment to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).<\/P>
Analyst Anne Marie Murphy noted that ASEAN has become tougher in terms of language regarding the South China Sea over the last couple of years.<\/P>
\u201cSo I do think you will see strong statements in support not of a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), but for principles underlying it,\u201d said Murphy, a professor at Seton Hall University\u2019s School of Diplomacy and International Relations.<\/P>
But since Cambodia, which is pro-China, serves as ASEAN chair this year, the statement may be watered down, another expert said.<\/P>
\u201cOn SCS, they might make a stronger statement, but there has to be consensus \u2013 Cambodia won\u2019t want a stronger statement,\u201d Josh Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, told BenarNews.<\/P>
China claims nearly the entire South China Sea, including waters within the exclusive economic zones of ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and non-member Taiwan.<\/P>
While ASEAN member Indonesia does not regard itself as party to the South China Sea dispute, Beijing claims historic rights to parts of that sea overlapping Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone as well.<\/P>
Ukraine<\/P>
Another focus of the summit will be Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, according to the analysts.<\/P>
Dewi Fortuna Anwar, an international affairs analyst at the state-funded National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) in Indonesia, said it was not going to be easy for the U.S. to find common ground on sanctions with ASEAN members.<\/P>
\u201cASEAN countries have their own policies,\u201d she said, noting that some members rely on Moscow for defense needs or are historically aligned to Russia.<\/P>
Still, U.S. officials could approach some countries bilaterally, CFR\u2019s Kurlantzick said.<\/P>
\u201cThe administration may try to press some important Southeast Asian partners, like Vietnam, to distance themselves more from Russia, and press others, such as Indonesia and Thailand, to adopt more critical stances as well,\u201d he said.<\/P>
Myanmar<\/P>
The post-coup crisis in Myanmar may be on top of the list of subjects discussed at the U.S.-ASEAN special summit, but analysts predict it will fall to the bottom of expected outcomes.<\/P>
All who spoke to BenarNews said participants would reiterate the unimplemented five-point consensus agreed to by the Myanmar junta and ASEAN leaders in April 2021, just weeks after the Feb. 1, 2021, coup.<\/P>
\u201cEveryone will nod their heads and reiterate the five-point consensus, that\u2019s it,\u201d Rand Corp.\u2019s Grossman said.<\/P>
The only move that has hurt the Myanmar military is ASEAN barring the junta leader, and subsequently junta representatives, from last year\u2019s ASEAN summit and other meetings.<\/P>
Malaysia has been pressing other ASEAN members to engage with the opposition civilian National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar.<\/P>
Engaging NUG as a bloc will not have many takers, \u201cbecause ASEAN doesn\u2019t want to pick sides in an internal fight,\u201d CSIS\u2019s Poling said.<\/P>
The missing link<\/P>
The one area where the summit could have a breakthrough would be in furthering economic ties \u2013 something that will not happen, the analysts said.<\/P>
\u201cWashington has really dropped the ball on this,\u201d Australian National University\u2019s Marston said.<\/P>
He was referring to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, announced in October 2021 and touted as a game changer that would rival Beijing\u2019s economic might in the region. The framework was to be launched in April, but has been delayed perhaps until next month.<\/P>
Murphy, of Seton Hall, agreed that expanding economic ties is one thing the United States could do to reassure Southeast Asia of its commitment and reduce the region\u2019s vulnerability to Chinese coercion.<\/P>
However, \u201csince Trump withdrew from the TPP, Biden is extremely constrained,\u201d she said, referring to the massive Trans Pacific Partnership, a trade deal forged during the Barack Obama administration and dropped by his successor.<\/P>
Campbell, of the U.S. National Security Council, defended the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.<\/P>
\u201cI don\u2019t need to tell anyone trade is politically contentious in the U.S., but we have constructed an approach that meets many critical challenges of trade and investment \u2013 such as digital trade, clean energy and the like \u2013 in a contemporary, 21st Century setting,\u201d he said.<\/P>
Campbell said that what he has heard from Southeast Asian officials is that they want economic engagements with a variety of countries, not just with one country.<\/P>
\u201cSteady engagement with their neighbor in the north, practical and continual engagement with the U.S., but also, more of a role with India, they want a role Europe \u2013 they want diversified relations,\u201d he said.<\/P>
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